San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Gonzales singled to center, Reynolds scored.5–4
- 10Hill hit sacrifice fly to right, Devers scored, McCray to third.5–3
- 10Eldridge doubled to left, Koss scored, Devers to third.4–3
- 8Cruz reached on infield single to shortstop, Reynolds scored.3–3
- 7Horwitz grounded out to shortstop, Flores Jr. scored, Mangum to third.3–2
- 5Hill singled to right, Gilbert scored, Devers to third.3–1
- 5Eldridge hit sacrifice fly to center, Koss scored.2–1
- 4Valdez walked, Horwitz scored, Gonzales to second, Reynolds to third.1–1
- 1Devers homered to center (415 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML SF +134 / PIT -162
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -145
- SF +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +45 Elo | PIT 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 3024–46 | Road vs home | 35–3216th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 25th of 301473 | Elo rating | 149716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–68 | 62–77 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 26–47 |
| Underdog | 51–40 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders | 64–63–12 | 74–60–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 12–10 PIT in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.