San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jonah CoxBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony MolinaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cox homered to left (379 feet).7–3
- 6Eldridge singled to left, Hill scored.6–3
- 6Hill doubled to right, Furman scored and Knizner scored.5–3
- 6Basabe homered to center (409 feet).3–3
- 5Baldwin singled to left, Murphy scored, Riley to second.2–3
- 5Cox reached on bunt single to second, Devers scored, Eldridge to second.2–2
- 2Harris II homered to center (401 feet).1–2
- 1Olson grounded out to shortstop, Baldwin scored.1–1
- 1Devers homered to right (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 65%
- ML SF +179 / ATL -193
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.8%, market 64.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -184
- SF +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −3 | SF: Anthony Molina: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +91 Elo | ATL 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 64.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 3023–45 | Road vs home | 48–231st of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 26th of 301471 | Elo rating | 15357th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–68 | 77–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 46–48 |
| Underdog | 49–40 | 31–12 |
| Overs–unders | 62–63–12 | 61–70–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 14–10 ATL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.