Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 1Baldwin homered to right (402 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML LAD +107 / ATL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.1%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -111
- LAD +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.1 – 3.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +17 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +6 Elo | LAD 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 1st of 3040–27 | Road vs home | 44–232nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301559 | Elo rating | 15327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–75 | 76–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 51–72 | 45–45 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 31–12 |
| Overs–unders | 61–70–2 | 60–67–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 14–11 ATL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.