Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kim singled to left, Thomas scored, Riley to second.5–6
- 7Edman walked, Freeman scored, Muncy to second, Betts to third.5–5
- 7Betts singled to center, Ohtani scored, Freeman to third.4–5
- 6Murphy homered to left center (397 feet).3–5
- 4Baldwin doubled to left, Murphy scored and Yastrzemski scored.3–4
- 4Riley hit sacrifice fly to center, Albies scored.3–2
- 3Edman homered to right (371 feet), Freeman scored.3–1
- 2Feduccia singled to center, Edman scored, T. Hernández to third.1–1
- 1Olson homered to right (400 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 54%
- ML LAD -120 / ATL +111
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.4%, market 53.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -115
- ATL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +10 Elo | LAD 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3040–26 | Road vs home | 43–232nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301560 | Elo rating | 15317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–74 | 75–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 51–71 | 45–45 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 60–70–2 | 59–67–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 14–10 ATL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.