Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Alex CallBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Albies singled to center, Olson scored.3–4
- 4Call singled to center, Edman scored.3–3
- 2Feduccia singled to left, Tucker scored, Thomas to second.2–3
- 2Thomas singled to right, Edman scored, Tucker to third.1–3
- 1Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Dubón scored, Harris II to third.0–3
- 1Harris II singled to right, Olson scored, Dubón to third.0–2
- 1Dubón singled to right, Baldwin scored, Olson to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML LAD -153 / ATL +142
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.9%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -146
- ATL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −4 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +27 Elo | LAD 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3040–25 | Road vs home | 42–233rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150011th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301561 | Elo rating | 15307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–73 | 74–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 51–70 | 45–45 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 29–12 |
| Overs–unders | 60–69–2 | 59–66–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 14–9 ATL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.