Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose CabreraPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Giants- Drew GilbertBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Whitcomb hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Cox scored, Hill to second.1–6
- 8Hill singled to right, Eldridge scored, Cox to third.1–5
- 8Cox singled to center, Devers scored.1–4
- 8Eldridge doubled to left, Lee scored, Devers to third.1–3
- 5Gilbert hit sacrifice fly to left, Koss scored.1–2
- 4Moreno homered to left (397 feet).1–1
- 1Gilbert homered to right center (407 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML ARI -116 / SF +108
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.7%, market 52.8%
- Fair odds
- ARI -112
- SF +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −8 | ARI: Jose Cabrera: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +12 Elo | ARI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 13th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 31–3423rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 10th of 301512 | Elo rating | 147025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–61 | 67–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–35 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 51–26 | 47–38 |
| Overs–unders | 56–70–8 | 60–61–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 29–19 SF in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 48.