Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tim TawaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kohl DrakePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blade TidwellPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hill grounded into fielder's choice to first, Lee scored, Whitcomb out at second.10–6
- 7McCann singled to left, Perdomo scored.10–5
- 6Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Vargas scored.9–5
- 6Vargas singled to right, Tawa scored and McCann scored.8–5
- 4Koss homered to left (365 feet), Hill scored.6–5
- 3Eldridge doubled to center, Devers scored.6–3
- 3Tawa homered to left center (379 feet), Perdomo scored and Arenado scored.6–2
- 3Carroll homered to center (419 feet), Nootbaar scored.3–2
- 2Hill hit sacrifice fly to right, Lee scored.1–2
- 1Eldridge homered to right (381 feet).1–1
- 1Nootbaar homered to center (432 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML ARI -112 / SF +104
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.3%, market 51.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -108
- SF +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −20 | ARI: Kohl Drake: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Blade Tidwell: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +16 Elo | ARI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 32–3423rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 10th of 301509 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–62 | 68–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 51–26 | 48–38 |
| Overs–unders | 56–71–8 | 60–62–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 29–20 SF in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 49.