Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch BrattPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting4-5, 4 RBI
- Yunior MartePitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Eldridge reached on infield single to second, Gilbert scored, Devers to second.2–7
- 8Devers singled to right, Basabe scored, Gilbert to third.2–6
- 7Lee singled to center, Gilbert scored, Eldridge to second.2–5
- 7Vargas singled to left, Kepler scored, McCann to second.2–4
- 5Eldridge singled to left, Basabe scored and Gilbert scored, Devers to second.1–4
- 5Devers singled to right, McCray scored, Gilbert to second, Basabe to third.1–2
- 3Nootbaar doubled to left, Vargas scored.1–1
- 1Eldridge singled to left, Cox scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML ARI -124 / SF +116
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.2%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- ARI -120
- SF +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +5 | ARI: Mitch Bratt: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Yunior Marte (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +22 Elo | ARI 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 13th of 3033–35 | Road vs home | 32–3623rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 10th of 301514 | Elo rating | 146827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–62 | 68–68 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–36 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 51–26 | 48–40 |
| Overs–unders | 57–72–8 | 61–63–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 31–20 SF in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 51.