Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lars NootbaarBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Matt WilkinsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Barrosa scored, Waldschmidt out at second, Lawlar to third.7–1
- 9Lawlar singled to left, Tawa scored, Barrosa to second.6–1
- 8Lee singled to right, Devers scored, Eldridge to third.5–1
- 8Perdomo singled to left, Carroll scored, Perdomo thrown out at first, Moreno to second.5–0
- 7Nootbaar homered to right (432 feet), Moreno scored, Arenado scored and Tawa scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML ARI -114 / SF +106
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 49.8%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -110
- SF +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +15 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Matt Wilkinson: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +1 Elo | SF 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3032–35 | Road vs home | 32–3523rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 10th of 301511 | Elo rating | 147125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–62 | 68–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 51–26 | 48–39 |
| Overs–unders | 57–71–8 | 61–62–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 30–20 SF in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 50.