Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason AdamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Olson singled to right, Hicklen scored, Acuña Jr. to second.2–3
- 8Norby singled to left, B. Sullivan scored.2–2
- 6McCarthy homered to right (391 feet).1–2
- 3Acuña Jr. singled to left, Riley scored.0–2
- 3Murphy homered to center (407 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 69%
- ML COL +217 / ATL -235
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 66.7%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -222
- COL +222 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +1 | COL: Mason Adams: team allows 1.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +121 Elo | ATL 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 69.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–46 | Road vs home | 47–231st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 30th of 301411 | Elo rating | 15347th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–66 | 77–59 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 46–47 |
| Underdog | 65–61 | 31–12 |
| Overs–unders | 65–67–4 | 61–69–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–19 ATL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 24.