Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Rafael Flores Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Joshua BaezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gonzales doubled to left, Lowe scored, Reynolds to third.6–2
- 6Walker scored on error, Fermín safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Cruz, Fermín safe at second on error, Church safe at third on error.5–2
- 5Flores Jr. homered to center (434 feet), Reynolds scored and Cruz scored.5–1
- 4Gonzalez singled to center, Mangum scored.2–1
- 3Báez homered to left (370 feet).1–1
- 1Lowe homered to right (364 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML PIT +114 / STL -123
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- STL: Elo 53.0%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -118
- PIT +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +17 | PIT: Lake Bachar: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +21 Elo | STL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3031–39 | Road vs home | 34–3621st of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 149119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–75 | 74–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–45 | 14–33 |
| Underdog | 35–30 | 60–29 |
| Overs–unders | 72–60–4 | 58–71–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 23–24 STL in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 47.