Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Leody TaverasBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Encarnacion-Strand doubled to center, Vázquez scored.8–7
- 5Fermín grounded out to shortstop, Church scored.7–7
- 5Church doubled to left, Burleson scored and Walker scored.7–6
- 5Walker doubled to left, Herrera scored, Burleson to third.7–4
- 5Burleson singled to center, Torres scored and Wetherholt scored, Herrera to second.7–3
- 2Gorman homered to right center (413 feet).7–1
- 2Alonso homered to right (369 feet), Narváez scored.7–0
- 1Taveras homered to right center (391 feet), Encarnacion-Strand scored and Beavers scored.5–0
- 1Beavers singled to right, Basallo scored, Encarnacion-Strand to second.2–0
- 1Encarnacion-Strand singled to right, Henderson scored, Basallo to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML BAL -106 / STL -101
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.6%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -102
- STL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −14 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +4 Elo | BAL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 32–3522nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–64 | 72–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–36 | 14–32 |
| Underdog | 38–28 | 58–29 |
| Overs–unders | 65–62–5 | 56–70–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–7 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.