Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Nathan ChurchBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Beavers doubled to center, Franklin scored.13–1
- 5Alonso doubled to left, Taveras scored, Holliday to third.12–1
- 5Holliday singled to center, Beavers scored, Taveras to third.11–1
- 5Taveras singled to right, Encarnacion-Strand scored and Franklin scored, Beavers to second.10–1
- 5Beavers walked, Mayo scored, Franklin to second, Encarnacion-Strand to third.8–1
- 5Encarnacion-Strand singled to left, Alonso scored and Henderson scored, Mayo to second.7–1
- 5Mayo singled to left, Holliday scored, Henderson to second, Alonso to third.5–1
- 3Church homered to right center (405 feet).4–1
- 3Encarnacion-Strand homered to left center (450 feet).4–0
- 3Alonso homered to left center (435 feet), Taveras scored and Holliday scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML BAL +111 / STL -119
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- STL: Elo 53.5%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -115
- BAL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −11 | BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +25 Elo | STL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3029–34 | Road vs home | 32–3422nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301491 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–64 | 72–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–36 | 14–31 |
| Underdog | 37–28 | 58–29 |
| Overs–unders | 64–62–5 | 55–70–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 2–7 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.