Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Blaze JordanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gordon GraceffoPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Church singled to left, Urías scored.5–7
- 8Henderson doubled to left, Holliday scored.5–6
- 7Mayo homered to center (446 feet), Encarnacion-Strand scored and Beavers scored.4–6
- 5Burleson grounded out to first, Fermín scored, Walker to second, Herrera to third.1–6
- 5Cowser hit sacrifice fly to left, Encarnacion-Strand scored.1–5
- 4Urías homered to center (401 feet), Burleson scored.0–5
- 2Jordan homered to center (416 feet), Burleson scored and Báez scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML BAL -127 / STL +119
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −11 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Gordon Graceffo: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +2 Elo | BAL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 13th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 32–3624th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–64 | 72–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–36 | 14–33 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 58–29 |
| Overs–unders | 66–62–5 | 57–70–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–7 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.