Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Herrera doubled to left, Saggese scored.5–4
- 7Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Urías scored.5–3
- 7Lowe singled to left, Cruz scored, Flores Jr. to second.5–2
- 5Burleson singled to right, Torres scored, Herrera to second.4–2
- 5Herrera singled to center, Saggese scored, Torres to second.4–1
- 5Triolo homered to left (412 feet).4–0
- 3Cruz scored on error, Lowe safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Urías.3–0
- 2Valdez homered to right (355 feet), Lowe scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PIT -119 / STL +111
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.2%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -115
- STL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 3.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −18 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +15 Elo | PIT 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 19th of 3032–39 | Road vs home | 34–3722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–75 | 74–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–45 | 14–34 |
| Underdog | 36–30 | 60–29 |
| Overs–unders | 72–60–5 | 58–71–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 24–24 STL in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 48.