San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cesar PerdomoPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting4-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe scored on error, Flores Jr. safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Basabe.12–13
- 8Furman singled to left, Basabe and McCray scored.12–12
- 8Cavanaugh doubled to right, Cox and Lee scored, Basabe to third.10–12
- 8Basabe walked, Eldridge scored, Lee to second, Cox to third.8–12
- 7Lowe homered to right center (411 feet).7–12
- 6Lee grounded out to second, Hill scored, Cox to second, Eldridge to third.7–11
- 6Cox reached on infield single to first, Koss scored, Eldridge to second, Hill to third.6–11
- 3Cruz singled to left, Horwitz and Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second.5–11
- 3Horwitz singled to right, Triolo and Davis scored.5–9
- 3Davis singled to right, Gonzalez and Valdez scored, Triolo to third.5–7
- 3Triolo walked, Cruz scored, Gonzalez to second, Valdez to third.5–5
- 3Gonzalez walked, Gonzales scored, Valdez to second, Cruz to third.5–4
- 3Cruz singled to center, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second.5–3
- 2Devers homered to center (415 feet), Koss and Hill scored.5–2
- 2Hill singled to center, Cavanaugh scored, Koss to second.2–2
- 2Koss singled to right, Basabe scored, Cavanaugh to third.1–2
- 1Cruz singled to center, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second.0–2
- 1Gonzales singled to right, Lowe scored, Reynolds to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML SF +144 / PIT -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.2%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- PIT -155
- SF +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −3 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +37 Elo | PIT 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 3024–45 | Road vs home | 34–3217th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 25th of 301474 | Elo rating | 149616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–68 | 62–76 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 26–46 |
| Underdog | 50–40 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders | 63–63–12 | 73–60–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 12–9 PIT in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.