San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Blade TidwellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Jake MangumBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Khristian CurtisPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Triolo hit sacrifice fly to center, Mangum scored.2–5
- 7Furman grounded out to first, Hill scored, Lee to third.2–4
- 7Lee doubled to right, Cox scored, Hill to third.1–4
- 6Triolo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mangum scored, Yorke out at second. Pittsburgh Pirates challenged: call on the field was overturned.0–4
- 6Mangum hit sacrifice bunt, Cruz scored, Mangum to first on throwing error by pitcher Sanmartín, Mangum to second.0–3
- 1Mangum hit by pitch, Reynolds scored, Cruz to second, Gonzales to third.0–2
- 1Cruz walked, Horwitz scored, Gonzales to second, Reynolds to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML SF +144 / PIT -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 61.1%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- PIT -155
- SF +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 5.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | +13 | SF: Blade Tidwell: team allows 1.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Lake Bachar: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +78 Elo | PIT 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–46 | Road vs home | 35–3316th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 25th of 301474 | Elo rating | 149618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–68 | 62–78 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 26–48 |
| Underdog | 52–40 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders | 64–63–13 | 74–60–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 13–10 PIT in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.