Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-4
- Ryan JohnsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4
- Jared JonesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 2Mangum doubled to right, Griffin scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 64%
- ML LAA +163 / PIT -198
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 58.3%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -175
- LAA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 5.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −7 | LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +58 Elo | PIT 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 3023–43 | Road vs home | 36–3316th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 28th of 301442 | Elo rating | 149815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–77 | 63–78 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 27–48 |
| Underdog | 55–52 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders | 58–79–3 | 74–61–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–4 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.