Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Rafael Flores Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Kyle TeelBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7C. Montgomery grounded out to shortstop, Benintendi scored.9–3
- 6Teel homered to right center (408 feet).9–2
- 5B. Montgomery singled to left, Benintendi scored.9–1
- 5Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to center, Mangum scored, Lowe to second, Griffin to third.9–0
- 5Flores Jr. homered to left (372 feet).8–0
- 2Horwitz singled to center, Lowe scored and Reynolds scored, Valdez to second.7–0
- 1Horwitz singled to center, Valdez scored.5–0
- 1Valdez hit a ground rule double, Cruz scored.4–0
- 1Cruz doubled to center, Lowe scored and Reynolds scored.3–0
- 1Reynolds doubled to right, Griffin scored, Lowe to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 56%
- ML PIT +119 / CHW -144
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- CHW: Elo 54.1%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- CHW -129
- PIT +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +29 Elo | CHW 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3033–39 | Road vs home | 43–285th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 149816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–81 | 77–66 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–51 | 15–28 |
| Underdog | 36–30 | 62–38 |
| Overs–unders | 74–64–6 | 80–61–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–4 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.