Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Sam AntonacciBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 3Walker singled to center, Varsho scored.2–6
- 3Varsho tripled to center, Alvarez scored and Paredes scored.2–5
- 3Paredes doubled to left, Wade Jr. scored, Alvarez to third.2–3
- 2Antonacci singled to left, Peters scored, Rogers to third.2–2
- 2Rogers reached on infield single to shortstop, C. Montgomery scored, Peters to second.1–2
- 1Altuve homered to left (353 feet), Paredes scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML CHW +130 / HOU -157
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.5%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -141
- CHW +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +12 | CHW: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +45 Elo | HOU 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 18th of 3032–39 | Road vs home | 35–3620th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 149915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–64 | 72–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–27 | 26–39 |
| Underdog | 62–37 | 46–29 |
| Overs–unders | 78–59–2 | 71–60–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 10–15 HOU in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.