Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Astros- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7C. Montgomery homered to right (378 feet).3–6
- 5Smith doubled to left, Alvarez scored and Paredes scored, Walker to third.2–6
- 5Walker walked, Vázquez scored, Paredes to second, Alvarez to third.2–4
- 4Velázquez homered to left (415 feet), Smith scored.2–3
- 4Murakami walked, Meidroth scored, Antonacci to second, Peters to third.2–1
- 4Meidroth singled to left, C. Montgomery scored.1–1
- 3Alvarez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Allen scored, Peña out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML CHW +119 / HOU -128
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -123
- CHW +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −15 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +6 Elo | CHW 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 33–3521st of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–62 | 70–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–27 | 24–38 |
| Underdog | 61–35 | 46–29 |
| Overs–unders | 77–57–2 | 70–58–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 9–13 HOU in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.