Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meidroth scored on Adams wild pitch.7–4
- 8Meidroth scored on Adams wild pitch.7–4
- 4Peters scored on a passed ball by Jeffers.6–4
- 4Peters scored on a passed ball by Jeffers.6–4
- 3Benintendi doubled to left, Murakami scored.5–4
- 2Lee singled to left, Larnach scored, Keaschall to third.4–4
- 1Clemens homered to right (380 feet).4–3
- 1Lee homered to right center (380 feet), Keaschall scored.4–2
- 1C. Montgomery homered to right (374 feet), Benintendi scored and B. Montgomery scored.4–0
- 1Benintendi singled to center, Vargas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML CHW +116 / MIN -124
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 50.8%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -120
- CHW +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −6 | CHW: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +6 Elo | MIN 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3029–36 | Road vs home | 35–3014th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 14th of 301498 | Elo rating | 147325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–61 | 68–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–27 | 17–33 |
| Underdog | 59–34 | 51–33 |
| Overs–unders | 76–55–2 | 70–53–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 17–29 MIN in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 46.