Minnesota Twins at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4
- Taj BradleyPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 11 K
Athletics- Carlos CortesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caratini grounded out to third, Culpepper scored.2–4
- 7Culpepper doubled to center, Clemens scored.1–4
- 6Walton singled to right, White scored, Walton to second.0–4
- 6White doubled to center, Butler scored.0–3
- 2Cortes homered to right (391 feet), Williams scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 58%
- ML MIN -142 / ATH +132
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.6%, market 57.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -136
- ATH +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.1 – 4.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −5 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +39 Elo | MIN 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3029–37 | Road vs home | 23–4130th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 142929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–64 | 61–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–31 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 51–33 | 50–43 |
| Overs–unders | 69–52–11 | 65–61–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 17–7 ATH in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 24.