Minnesota Twins at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kaelen CulpepperBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Jeff McNeilBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler doubled to center, Gelof scored.9–6
- 9Gelof doubled to center, McNeil scored.9–5
- 9McNeil doubled to right, Bolte scored and Heim scored.9–4
- 8White hit sacrifice fly to center, Bolte scored.9–2
- 8Culpepper reached on infield single to second, Bell scored, Lewis to second.9–1
- 8Clemens singled to center, Buxton scored, Bell to second.8–1
- 6Bell hit sacrifice fly to left, Kreidler scored.7–1
- 6Keaschall doubled to left, Culpepper scored and Lee scored, Kreidler to third.6–1
- 5Clemens singled to center, Buxton scored, Jeffers to third.4–1
- 5Kreidler homered to left (399 feet).3–1
- 3Butler reached on infield single to shortstop, Bolte scored.2–1
- 3Bell grounded out to first, Buxton scored.2–0
- 1Bell doubled to left, Buxton scored, Jeffers to third. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML MIN -140 / ATH +131
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 6.1 – 5.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −33 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +67 Elo | MIN 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3028–37 | Road vs home | 23–4030th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 143129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–64 | 61–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–31 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 51–33 | 50–42 |
| Overs–unders | 68–52–11 | 64–61–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 16–7 ATH in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 23.