Minnesota Twins at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Butler homered to center (425 feet).4–7
- 6Hernaiz singled to center, Williams scored.4–6
- 6Williams tripled to center, White scored and McNeil scored.4–5
- 6McNeil doubled to left, Heim scored, White to third.4–3
- 6Lewis hit sacrifice fly to left, Bell scored.4–2
- 4Serven grounded out to shortstop, White scored.3–2
- 4Stefanic doubled to left, Butler scored, White to third.3–1
- 2Culpepper homered to left (428 feet).3–0
- 2Larnach homered to right (369 feet).2–0
- 1Lee homered to right (373 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML MIN -125 / ATH +116
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.3%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -120
- ATH +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.5 – 5.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +23 | MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 1.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +12 Elo | ATH 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3029–38 | Road vs home | 24–4130th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 143129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–65 | 62–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–32 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 51–33 | 51–43 |
| Overs–unders | 69–53–11 | 65–62–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 17–8 ATH in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 25.