Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Sam AntonacciBatting2-4
- Jose UrquidyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching8.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9B. Montgomery singled to center, Antonacci scored, Vargas to third.1–5
- 7Keaschall homered to center (411 feet).0–5
- 3Bell singled to left, Jeffers scored.0–4
- 1Larnach doubled to right, Bell scored and Jeffers scored.0–3
- 1Bell singled to center, Lee scored, Jeffers to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML CHW +105 / MIN -113
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.9%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +6 | CHW: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +1 Elo | CHW 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 17th of 3031–36 | Road vs home | 35–3215th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Elo rating | 147026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–61 | 68–68 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–27 | 17–35 |
| Underdog | 61–34 | 51–33 |
| Overs–unders | 77–56–2 | 71–54–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 19–29 MIN in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 48.