Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Josh BellBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Benintendi homered to right center (381 feet).3–2
- 4Benintendi scored on error, Meidroth safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Culpepper.2–2
- 2Jenkins grounded into fielder's choice to second, Culpepper scored, Caratini out at second.1–2
- 1Bell hit sacrifice fly to right, Keaschall scored.1–1
- 1Benintendi singled to right, Antonacci scored, Murakami to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML CHW -102 / MIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.3%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -101
- CHW +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +2 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +12 Elo | CHW 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 3030–36 | Road vs home | 35–3114th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Elo rating | 147127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–61 | 68–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–27 | 17–34 |
| Underdog | 60–34 | 51–33 |
| Overs–unders | 77–55–2 | 71–53–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 18–29 MIN in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 47.