Houston Astros at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mets- Jared YoungBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez doubled to left, Semien scored and Young scored.2–6
- 8Alvarez homered to right center (436 feet).2–4
- 5Young tripled to right, Soto scored and Benge scored.1–4
- 5Soto singled to right, Lindor scored.1–2
- 1Young singled to right, Lindor scored, Benge to second.1–1
- 1Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to right, Peña scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 60%
- ML HOU +143 / NYM -154
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.6%, market 59.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -147
- HOU +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.6 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | HOU: Bennett Sousa (no track record yet) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +18 Elo | NYM 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3035–32 | Road vs home | 31–3826th of 30 |
| 30th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–66 | 63–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–38 | 27–43 |
| Underdog | 45–28 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders | 70–58–7 | 60–64–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–3 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.