Houston Astros at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Daulton VarshoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Mets- Carson BengeBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Diaz singled to right, Altuve scored, Varsho to second.3–1
- 6Varsho singled to right, Alvarez scored and Paredes scored, Altuve to third.2–1
- 4Benge doubled to center, Lindor scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 50%
- ML HOU -102 / NYM -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -101
- HOU +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +7 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +12 Elo | NYM 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 9th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 31–3726th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 149220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–66 | 63–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–38 | 27–42 |
| Underdog | 44–28 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders | 70–57–7 | 60–63–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–3 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.