Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes homered to left (339 feet).5–1
- 7Grichuk doubled to right, C. Montgomery scored and Murakami scored.5–0
- 5C. Montgomery doubled to right, Benintendi scored and Vargas scored.3–0
- 5Benintendi singled to right, Antonacci scored, Vargas to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 51%
- ML CHW -116 / HOU -104
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CHW: Elo 47.8%, market 51.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -105
- HOU +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 51.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 3031–38 | Road vs home | 34–3520th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–63 | 71–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–27 | 25–38 |
| Underdog | 61–36 | 46–29 |
| Overs–unders | 78–57–2 | 71–58–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 9–14 HOU in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.