Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-4
- Walbert UrenaPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 3Davis homered to left (364 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML LAA +148 / PIT -179
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -159
- LAA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.0 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −14 | LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +40 Elo | PIT 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 3024–44 | Road vs home | 37–3414th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 28th of 301445 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–77 | 63–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 27–50 |
| Underdog | 57–52 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders | 58–81–3 | 74–63–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–5 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.