Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hagen SmithPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Teel homered to center (409 feet), B. Montgomery scored and Peters scored.1–10
- 8Peters hit a ground rule double, C. Montgomery scored, B. Montgomery to third.1–7
- 8Grichuk homered to left (361 feet).1–6
- 7Vargas walked, Peters scored, Doyle to second, Meidroth to third.1–5
- 7Lee homered to right center (425 feet).1–4
- 6Grichuk singled to left, Antonacci scored, Murakami to second.0–4
- 6Antonacci doubled to center, Meidroth scored and Peters scored.0–3
- 5Murakami singled to right, Antonacci scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 56%
- ML MIN +120 / CHW -144
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- CHW: Elo 56.1%, market 56.5%
- Fair odds
- CHW -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +9 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Bryan Hudson: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +43 Elo | CHW 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 56.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3030–40 | Road vs home | 42–285th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–70 | 76–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 14–28 |
| Underdog | 52–34 | 62–38 |
| Overs–unders | 75–56–11 | 79–61–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 31–20 CHW in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 34 of 51.