Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew AndersonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting3-6
- Dean KremerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 12Báez doubled to right, Malgeri scored, Peck scored and Clark scored.11–6
- 12Torkelson homered to left (382 feet), Lee scored.8–6
- 11Keaschall singled to right, Culpepper scored.6–6
- 11Clark doubled to left, Malgeri scored.6–5
- 8Lewis singled to center, Clemens scored and Ross scored, Lewis to second, Kreidler to third.5–5
- 8Caratini walked, Lee scored, Ross to second, Clemens to third.5–3
- 6Larnach doubled to right, Jeffers scored, Bell to third.5–2
- 6Peck singled to right, Clark scored.5–1
- 5Greene doubled to center, Lee scored.4–1
- 5Lee singled to center, McGonigle scored.3–1
- 4Jeffers doubled to left, Clemens scored.2–1
- 2Peck doubled to center, Clark scored and Valencia scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML DET +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −9 | DET: Drew Anderson: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +5 Elo | DET 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3029–40 | Road vs home | 38–3214th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 148024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–74 | 71–68 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–48 | 20–35 |
| Underdog | 34–26 | 51–33 |
| Overs–unders | 59–73–6 | 73–55–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 24–24 MIN in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 48.