Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4
- Drew AndersonPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman singled to center, T. Hernández scored.2–1
- 6Rojas singled to center, E. Hernández scored, T. Hernández to second.1–1
- 5Clark tripled to left, Valencia scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML LAD -180 / DET +168
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.3%, market 63.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -172
- DET +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | LAD: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Drew Anderson: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +37 Elo | LAD 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3040–28 | Road vs home | 33–3318th of 30 |
| 27th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301558 | Elo rating | 150911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–75 | 62–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 51–72 | 30–48 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders | 61–71–2 | 57–70–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–3 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.