Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8T. Hernández scored on Rainey wild pitch, Muncy to second on wild pitch by Rainey.6–1
- 8T. Hernández scored on Rainey wild pitch, Muncy to second on wild pitch by Rainey.6–1
- 8Muncy singled to right, Freeman scored, T. Hernández to third.5–1
- 8Betts scored on Rainey wild pitch, T. Hernández to second on wild pitch by Rainey, Freeman to third on wild pitch by Rainey.4–1
- 8Betts scored on Rainey wild pitch, T. Hernández to second on wild pitch by Rainey, Freeman to third on wild pitch by Rainey.4–1
- 6T. Hernández homered to left center (434 feet), Freeman scored.3–1
- 4McGonigle singled to left, Torres scored.1–1
- 4Rojas hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -146 / DET +136
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- DET +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −17 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +55 Elo | LAD 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3041–29 | Road vs home | 34–3419th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301558 | Elo rating | 150912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–77 | 64–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 51–74 | 30–48 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 61–73–2 | 57–72–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–4 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.