Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Hao-Yu LeeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jenkins homered to right (388 feet), Culpepper scored.1–11
- 7Jeffers homered to left center (384 feet).1–9
- 6Lee singled to right, Jenkins scored, Lewis scored and Keaschall scored, Lee out stretching at second.1–8
- 6Lee homered to center (439 feet).1–5
- 5Jeffers homered to left center (420 feet), Keaschall scored and Clemens scored.0–5
- 4Clemens homered to right (399 feet).0–2
- 1Clemens hit sacrifice fly to right, Keaschall scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML DET +114 / MIN -123
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.0%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +14 Elo | DET 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3029–38 | Road vs home | 36–3215th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Elo rating | 147226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–72 | 69–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–48 | 18–35 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 51–33 |
| Overs–unders | 57–73–6 | 71–55–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 24–22 MIN in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 46.