Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Hao-Yu LeeBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Culpepper grounded into fielder's choice to third, Jackson scored, Lewis out at second, Bell to third.2–15
- 8Lee doubled to center, Dingler scored.2–14
- 6Culpepper singled to left, Bell scored and Gonzalez scored, Lewis to second.1–14
- 6Jeffers homered to left (387 feet), Keaschall scored and Clemens scored.1–12
- 6Lee hit sacrifice fly to center, Jenkins scored.1–9
- 6Keaschall singled to right, Culpepper scored, Jenkins to third.1–8
- 6Lewis homered to center (427 feet), Bell scored and Larnach scored.1–7
- 5Keaschall doubled to left, Jenkins scored.1–4
- 5Jenkins grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Larnach scored on throwing error by catcher Dingler and Lewis scored on error, Jenkins second.1–3
- 1Clemens homered to right (395 feet).1–1
- 1Greene grounded out to first, McGonigle scored, Torres to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML DET -107 / MIN -113
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.0%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -103
- DET +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −1 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Andrew Morris: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +28 Elo | DET 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3029–39 | Road vs home | 37–3215th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Elo rating | 147624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–73 | 70–68 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–48 | 19–35 |
| Underdog | 34–25 | 51–33 |
| Overs–unders | 58–73–6 | 72–55–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 24–23 MIN in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 47.