Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Culpepper doubled to right, Keaschall scored.6–4
- 5Vargas singled to left, Meidroth scored, Antonacci to second.5–4
- 5Jeffers homered to left (415 feet), Keaschall scored and Culpepper scored.5–3
- 4Lee doubled to left, Bell scored, Clemens to third.2–3
- 4Clemens grounded into fielder's choice to second, Culpepper scored, Lewis out at second, Bell to third.1–3
- 1C. Montgomery homered to right (372 feet).0–3
- 1Murakami homered to left (346 feet), Vargas scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 53%
- ML MIN +104 / CHW -126
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- CHW: Elo 55.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHW -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +6 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +35 Elo | CHW 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.76th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 3029–40 | Road vs home | 42–274th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 24th of 301476 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–70 | 76–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 51–34 | 62–38 |
| Overs–unders | 74–56–11 | 78–61–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 30–20 CHW in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 34 of 50.