Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Josh BellBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bell homered to right center (460 feet).1–4
- 4C. Montgomery homered to right center (416 feet), Benintendi scored.0–4
- 2B. Montgomery homered to right center (419 feet).0–2
- 1Vargas homered to right center (382 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 54%
- ML MIN +109 / CHW -131
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CHW: Elo 54.6%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- CHW -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +7 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +32 Elo | CHW 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.76th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3029–39 | Road vs home | 41–274th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–69 | 75–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 13–27 |
| Underdog | 51–33 | 62–38 |
| Overs–unders | 74–55–11 | 78–60–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 30–19 CHW in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 49.