Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting1-1
- Erick FeddePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cruz singled to right, Triolo scored.2–0
- 4Cruz homered to center (433 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 51%
- ML PIT -104 / CHW -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CHW: Elo 51.4%, market 51.2%
- Fair odds
- CHW -105
- PIT +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Hagen Smith (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +10 Elo | CHW 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 51.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.76th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 15th of 3035–39 | Road vs home | 43–306th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–81 | 77–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–51 | 15–30 |
| Underdog | 38–30 | 62–38 |
| Overs–unders | 75–65–6 | 81–62–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 7–4 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.