Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hoerner grounded out to second, Busch scored, Happ to second, Bregman to third.4–3
- 6Lowe singled to center, Flores Jr. scored and Gonzales scored, Mangum to second.4–2
- 6Gonzales hit a ground rule double, Reynolds scored, Flores Jr. to third.2–2
- 5Amaya homered to left (389 feet), Ramirez scored.1–2
- 1Reynolds singled to left, Griffin scored, Cruz thrown out at third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML PIT +141 / CHC -171
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.5%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -152
- PIT +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 4.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +59 Elo | CHC 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 43–316th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15454th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–82 | 74–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–51 | 39–59 |
| Underdog | 40–31 | 35–16 |
| Overs–unders | 76–67–6 | 80–61–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 17–34 CHC in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 51.