Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Pedro RamirezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner hit by pitch, Bregman scored, Shaw to second, Suzuki to third.3–4
- 8Shaw walked, Ramirez scored, Suzuki to second, Bregman to third.3–3
- 6O'Hearn homered to right (379 feet), Lowe scored and Reynolds scored.3–2
- 3Ramirez homered to right center (393 feet).0–2
- 1Busch homered to center (415 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML PIT +109 / CHC -132
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.6 – 4.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +73 Elo | CHC 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3036–40 | Road vs home | 42–318th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–82 | 74–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–51 | 39–58 |
| Underdog | 39–31 | 35–16 |
| Overs–unders | 76–66–6 | 80–60–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 17–33 CHC in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 50.