Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yastrzemski homered to center (407 feet), S. Murphy scored.3–7
- 7S. Murphy grounded into fielder's choice to third, Harris II scored, Dubón out at second.1–7
- 6Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (373 feet), Kelly scored.0–7
- 3Conforto doubled to right, Hoerner scored.0–5
- 3Hoerner singled to right, Busch scored.0–4
- 2Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Hoerner scored and Kelly scored.0–3
- 2Kelly grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Happ scored, Ramirez out at second, Hoerner to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML ATL +113 / CHC -136
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -123
- ATL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 5.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −16 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: David Peterson: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +21 Elo | CHC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3036–35 | Road vs home | 43–328th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301530 | Elo rating | 15434th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–67 | 74–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 49–54 | 39–60 |
| Underdog | 34–13 | 35–16 |
| Overs–unders | 68–75–7 | 80–61–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 12–9 CHC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.