Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Victor Mesa Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hicks singled to right, Aranda scored, Caminero to third.7–2
- 6Olson hit sacrifice fly to center, Baldwin scored.6–2
- 4Baldwin homered to center (419 feet).6–1
- 4Díaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Mullins scored, Palacios to third.6–0
- 4Palacios singled to left, Simpson scored, Mullins to second.5–0
- 4Mullins singled to left, Mesa Jr. scored, Simpson to third.4–0
- 2Mateo singled to center, Simpson scored and Palacios scored.3–0
- 2Mesa Jr. homered to right center (415 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML TB +104 / ATL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.9 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | 0 | TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +38 Elo | ATL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 6th of 3039–33 | Road vs home | 48–252nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 8th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–64 | 81–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 48–42 | 47–51 |
| Underdog | 32–22 | 34–13 |
| Overs–unders | 67–72–5 | 64–74–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–5 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.