Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Seager homered to left center (396 feet).6–8
- 7DeLuca singled to center, Simpson scored, DeLuca to second.6–7
- 5Duran singled to right, O'Hoppe scored, Díaz to second.5–7
- 5Díaz singled to center, Burger scored, O'Hoppe to second.5–6
- 4Foscue doubled to right, O'Hoppe scored and Duran scored, Seager to third.5–5
- 4Burger homered to center (428 feet), Langford scored.5–3
- 4Caminero hit sacrifice fly to left, Díaz scored.5–1
- 2Burger homered to left center (402 feet).4–1
- 2Aranda hit sacrifice fly to center, Fortes scored, Díaz to second.4–0
- 2Díaz singled to center, Mesa Jr. scored, Fortes to third.3–0
- 2Fortes reached on bunt single to pitcher, Mateo scored, Mesa Jr. to second.2–0
- 2Mesa Jr. singled to left, Simpson scored, Mateo to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML TB -120 / TEX -101
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- TB: Elo 52.5%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +18 Elo | TB 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3038–32 | Road vs home | 39–3210th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 8th of 301524 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–63 | 61–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 48–42 | 27–53 |
| Underdog | 31–21 | 34–29 |
| Overs–unders | 66–71–5 | 71–62–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 10–16 TEX in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 26.