Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Elias DiazBatting1-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz hit sacrifice fly to left, Burger scored, Carter to third.7–6
- 9Caminero singled to center, Mateo scored, Aranda to second.7–5
- 7Díaz homered to left center (384 feet), Burger scored, Carter scored and Freeman scored.6–5
- 5Mullins grounded into double play, first to third to shortstop, Mesa Jr. scored, Simpson out at third in rundown.6–1
- 5Mesa Jr. singled to center, Caminero scored on error, Mesa Jr. safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Carter.5–1
- 5Caminero doubled to left, Aranda scored.4–1
- 5Aranda hit a ground rule double, Díaz scored.3–1
- 4Palacios homered to right (371 feet).2–1
- 3Aranda homered to right center (412 feet).1–1
- 2Duran homered to center (419 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TB +100 / TEX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 45.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −9 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 8th of 3036–32 | Road vs home | 39–3010th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 148822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–63 | 61–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 48–42 | 27–51 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 34–29 |
| Overs–unders | 64–71–5 | 69–62–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–16 TEX in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.