New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vilade reached on infield single to pitcher, Mesa Jr. scored, Walls to third.2–6
- 7Lindor walked, Young scored, Ewing to second, Semien to third.2–5
- 6Díaz homered to left center (396 feet).1–5
- 6Walls hit sacrifice fly to left, Fortes scored.1–4
- 6Fortes doubled to left, Simpson scored.1–3
- 3Vilade singled to right, Mesa Jr. scored, Díaz to second.1–2
- 1Caminero singled to left, Díaz scored.1–1
- 1Lindor homered to right (367 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML NYM +113 / TB -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TB: Elo 57.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- NYM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −15 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +49 Elo | TB 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3030–37 | Road vs home | 46–243rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–73 | 76–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–44 | 47–40 |
| Underdog | 37–29 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 60–65–13 | 62–70–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–7 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.