New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robert StockPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rays- Liam HicksBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Simpson singled to right, Aranda scored, Mateo to third.3–2
- 8Hicks singled to right, Walls scored, Aranda to second.3–1
- 7Alvarez singled to right, Pache scored, Semien to third.3–0
- 7Vientos homered to left center (418 feet).2–0
- 4Vientos grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Bichette scored, Benge out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 63%
- ML NYM +168 / TB -181
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- TB: Elo 57.5%, market 63.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -173
- NYM +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.4 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | NYM: Robert Stock: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +52 Elo | TB 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 63.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3029–37 | Road vs home | 46–231st of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–73 | 76–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–44 | 47–39 |
| Underdog | 36–29 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 60–64–13 | 62–69–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–7 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.