Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-3
- Gage JumpPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Justin FoscueBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernaiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Cortes scored.1–8
- 8Freeman singled to left, O'Hoppe scored.0–8
- 5Carter grounded into fielder's choice to first, Langford scored, Burger out at second.0–7
- 5Burger singled to center, Seager scored, Langford to third.0–6
- 5Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to left, Duran scored, Seager to third.0–5
- 4Foscue homered to left center (417 feet).0–4
- 3Nimmo singled to center, Seager scored.0–3
- 2Freeman singled to center, Burger scored.0–2
- 2Díaz grounded out to shortstop, Nimmo scored, Burger to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 67%
- ML ATH +200 / TEX -216
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 60.0%, market 67.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -205
- ATH +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | 0 | ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +70 Elo | TEX 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 67.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 3028–40 | Road vs home | 36–2911th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 29th of 301429 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–73 | 58–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 25–50 |
| Underdog | 53–45 | 33–29 |
| Overs–unders | 67–64–6 | 66–61–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 21–28 TEX in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 49.