Baltimore Orioles at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Carlos CortesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cowser scored on Alvarado wild pitch.5–3
- 9Cowser scored on Alvarado wild pitch.5–3
- 8Cortes singled to right, Walton scored, Stefanic to third.4–3
- 6Walton hit by pitch, McNeil scored, Butler to second, Gelof to third.4–2
- 6Butler walked, Heim scored, Gelof to second, McNeil to third.4–1
- 6Taveras doubled to left, Mayo scored and Beavers scored.4–0
- 5Cowser homered to center (386 feet).2–0
- 3Taveras hit a ground rule double, Mayo scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 58%
- ML BAL -142 / ATH +132
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 58.1%, market 57.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -136
- ATH +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.3 – 4.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −10 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +57 Elo | BAL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3032–35 | Road vs home | 25–4230th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 143229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–66 | 64–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–38 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 53–43 |
| Overs–unders | 67–63–5 | 66–63–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 13–10 ATH in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.